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#99 Biosafety Protocol, International Trade and Agricultural Biotechnology: Policy Inferences for India by Sachin Chaturvedi and Lian Chawii
Abstract:
The growing development in and possibly greater diffusion of biotechnology products have further accentuated the intensity of trade restrictions on the entry of these goods in countries like EU, Japan and South Korea. While India initiates the various measures to implement the Biosafety protocol it is essential that specific trade policy responses are thought of on priority. This would be important for effective implementation of other Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) as well. In this context apart from other measures certain institutional initiatives need to be launched; for instance regional and sub-regional cooperation, focus on development of necessary skills for quarantine and other agencies, precautionary measures without affecting the trade facilitation measures. At the regional level, initiatives like Biosafety Clearing House and risk assessment mechanism should be effectively put in place. In order to facilitate this the policy specific scientific responses for risk assessment and risk management may also be finalised at the earliest possible.

Key Words: Biosafety, Trade, Agricultural Biotechnology and Regional Cooperation

#98

The WTO Negotiations on Industrial Tariffs: What is at Stake for Developing Countries?
by Yilmaz Akyüz
Abstract: This paper focuses on the implications of the negotiations on industrial tariffs for longer term industrialization in developing countries. It begins with a brief overview of the NAMA framework that is followed by a review of the historical experience of today’s advanced countries regarding the use of tariffs in the course of their industrialization, and compares and contrasts it with the actual situation prevailing in developing countries today and the proposals put forward. Then it discusses the sectoral pattern and evolution of tariffs that may be needed in the course of industrial development in comparison with the constraints that would result from the proposals made by developed countries, and advances a simple alternative formula that can help reconcile policy flexibility with multilateral discipline. This is followed by an evaluation of various estimates of benefits of tariff cuts to developing countries. There the paper turns to the question of reciprocity from a broad developmental perspective. It is concluded with a brief summary of the key points on how the negotiations could accommodate both the immediate needs and longer-term interests of developing countries.

#97 Non-tariff Barriers Affecting India’s Exports by Rajesh Mehta
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is first of all to highlight that Indian exports do face non-tariff barriers in major export markets especially the US, EU, Japan and other developed countries, which significantly hinder India’s exports to these markets. A second related aim is to illustrate the range of barriers, which confront Indian exporters. A third proximate goal is to suggest policy responses.
#96 Advancing the ASEAN-India Partnership in the New Millennium by Ong Keng Yong
Abstract: India has an emerging web of cooperation with East Asian countries, especially ASEAN through the ASEAN-India dialogue process, the bilateral free trade agreements with Singapore and Thailand and sub-regional initiatives such as the Mekong-Ganga cooperation and the BIMST-EC. In this discussion paper the ASEAN Secretary-General focuses on the need to develop a partnership between ASEAN and India that has the dual objectives of addressing the challenges of globalisation and working closely to reap the opportunities of the same universal phenomena. There are enough opportunities and challenges to compel ASEAN and India to work closely in maintaining peace and stability, expanding economic linkages and improving the critical human capacities. The paper also presents ten points for Advancing ASEAN-India People-to-People Partnership.
#95 The Search for Regional Architecture: The Role of ASEAN as Strange Attractor by Djisman S. Simanjuntak
Abstract: There is one other important reason for arguing that a deep comprehensive ASEAN integration is indispensable under the current network of initiatives on external relations. Using ASEAN as a “strange attractor” for an East Asian integration is unlikely to bear fruits unless ASEAN is willing to set example. Even a deeply integrated ASEAN may still find it difficult to persuade the rest of East Asia on the merits of East Asian integration, given the very limited muscle of ASEAN in terms of its external trade and investments. Being a recipient rather than a donor of official development assistance ASEAN is handicapped in playing the role of champion in trade and investment liberalization. What ASEAN most realistically can do is to serve as the “hub for post offices” while major Asian countries seek to put aside differences in order to promote economic co-operation and integration. ASEAN has once missed the opportunity of playing the role of a champion of the ambitious regional integration of APEC. It should avoid committing the same mistake while endeavoring to promote an East Asian integration or even an Asia-wide integration.
#94 India-Central Asia Economic Relations: A Report of RIS/CII Seminar
#93 Asian Energy Outlook to 2020: Trends, Patterns and Imperatives of Regional Cooperation by Kokichi Ito, Zhidong and Ryoichi Komiyama
Abstract: With booming economic growth Asia will play increasingly important role in global economic and energy matters. World primary energy consumption is projected to expand at an average annual growth rate of 2.1 percent by 2020. About 70 percent of the increase would be accounted for by non-OECD member economies, two thirds of which are from the Asian region. The increase in demand for oil in Asia will most likely amplify the dependency on shipments from other regions (particularly the Middle East). Ensuring energy security would therefore turn out to be a vital task. In Asia (particularly East Asia), the achievement of the “three Es” (economic development, energy security, and environmental preservation) could no longer be viewed as a task to be addressed by each economy separately. Instead, it should be approached through region-wide cooperation - a goal of common interest.
#92 Regional Trade and Investment Architecture in Asia-Pacific: Emerging Trends and Imperatives by Tiziana Bonapace
Abstract: Regionalism has become a key component of the new international order. It offers to the governments of developed and developing countries a new and attractive complementary strategy to multilateralism. Most countries of the world today belong to one or more regional trading arrangements of some kind covering more than two-thirds of the trade conducted. The Asia Pacific region is no exception to this trend. This paper examines the evolving regional trading panorama in the Asia Pacific region with its recent surge in bilateralism and its implications for evolving a regional trade and investment architecture. It argues that by facilitating the development of a seamless, region-wide zone of trade and investment, the region will enhance its prospects for becoming world’s center of economic growth and prosperity by 2020.
#91 India-East Asia Integration: A Win-Win for Asia  by Mukul G. Asher and Rahul Sen
Abstract: This paper argues that India’s unilateral liberalization policies since the early 1990s, and purposeful and strategic pursual of its Look East Policy has resulted in considerably greater integration with the rest of Asia than is commonly realized or acknowledged. Moreover, the enabling conditions for greater economic integration among major Asian economies have been laid. If Asia is to increase its economic and political weight in the world affairs, India’s involvement would have to be an integral part of the Asia-wide cooperation. It is in this context that closer cooperation among Japan, ASEAN, South Korea, India, and China would provide considerable win-win opportunities and will have far ranging implications for the world.
#90 Strategic Relevance of Asian Economic Integration  by Eric Teo Chu Cheow
Abstract: As the spread of SARS had shown last year, the longer-term goal of an East Asian Community (ASEAN, China, Japan and South Korea) may already be crystallizing much faster than was initially thought, thanks to increasing people-to-people contacts and the freer movement of goods, services, tourists and expatriates across the whole region. India appears poised to be joining this Asian movement too.
#89 China Role in the Asian Economic Unification Process  by Yao Chao Cheng
Abstract: The 21st century, as being said the world over, will belong to Asia. The regional economic cooperation in Asia is developing fast and well with the ASEAN as a center and with the positive participations of major Asian nations such as China, India and Japan. The cooperation has shown that the Asian economic unification is in process. We believe that the economic unification process shall result in an Asian economic community. The integrated cooperation is the best way for Asian nations to make common development and the "fault lines" as proposed in Samuel Huntington’s paradigm1 can be repaired and transcended in the unification process.
#88 Strategic Approach to Strengthening the International Competitiveness in Knowledge Based Industries: Electronics Industry  by K.J. Joseph
Abstract: It is generally understood that while the IT software and service sector in India recorded unprecedented growth rate in a sustained manner for more than a decade and established credibility in the international market, the hardware sector, both computer hardware and other electronics equipment and components, has shown a decelerating trend. At the same time, being a signatory to Information Technology Agreement of WTO, India is committed to reduce the tariff rates on a wide range of IT goods to zero level by 2005 leading to unprecedented import competition. Hence it is important that the industry equip itself to meet the import competition and enhance its export competitiveness. Against this background the present paper analyzed performance (both export and production) of electronics industry and comes out with the broad contours of a strategic approach towards promoting the international competitiveness of India’s electronics industry.
#87 Regional Cooperation for Poverty Alleviation and Food Security in South Asia  by Sachin Chaturvedi
Abstract: This paper explores the various options available within the framework of regional cooperation for addressing issues like poverty alleviation and food security in the Asian region. This becomes important in context of Doha Development Agenda (DDA) which has called for linking up trade with poverty reduction efforts. The paper suggests joint marketing of various products from Asian developing countries for increasing the market profile, apart from collectively addressing issues like introduction of new technologies for enhancing productivity. The paper also addresses some of the policy constraints such as restricted market access, growing digital divide and emerging non-tariff barriers to be attended on a priority basis.
#86 Towards a Free Trade Area in South Asia: Charting A Feasible Course for Trade Liberalisation with Reference to India's Role  by Indra Nath Mukherji
Abstract: Four rounds of exchange of trade concessions have taken place under the South Asian Preferential Trading Arrangement (SAPTA). Initiated since December 1995, negotiations under SAPTA have been based on Positive List approach. A large number of products have however been offered concessions exclusively to Least Developed Countries (LDCs). India has offered the largest number of concessions, particularly favouring LDCs with tariff preferences ranging from 50-100 percent. This paper examines the impact of tariff concessions on India’s preferential trade in the first three rounds of SAPTA negotiations in relation to its total bilateral trade with Bangladesh, Maldives, Pakistan and Sri Lanka covering the period 1996-97 to 2002-03. The hypothesis is that tariff cuts are expected to induce faster growth in India’s preferential trade in relation to its bilateral trade. The study reveals that owing to lack of proper targeting, low preferential margins, non-concern with a variety of non-tariff barriers, and the emergence of more ambitious Indo-Lanka Free Trade Agreement, the performance of India’s preferential trade under SAPTA has been lackluster. However, there are a few hopeful pointers. There has been relatively better targeting of trade preferences between India and Pakistan leading to increasing share in India’s preferential trade in recent years for products exchanged preferences in the Second Round. Bangladesh has been the main beneficiary of India’s offer of duty-free access to least developed countries on selected products under the Third Round and their immediate positive response in terms of increasing shares in India’s preferential imports is just beginning to be observed. The paper suggests a few modalities to meet the required prerequisites for a smooth transition from SAPTA to SAFTA. Experience from the operation of SAPTA suggests that mere tinkering with modest preferential margins, maintaining unduly long phase-out period to attain the goal of a free trade area without concern for deeper forms of integration such as removal of non-tariff barriers, investment cooperation and improvement in trade facilitation measures could make SAFTA largely irrelevant.
#85 Industrial Restructuring and Export Competitiveness of the Textiles and Clothing Sector in SAARC in the Context of MFA Phase-Out  by Ram Upendra Das
Abstract: Traditionally, the textiles and clothing industry has been considered as one of the relatively more labour-intensive manufacturing industries in which developing countries have had comparative advantage mainly on account of cheap labour. Through econometric explorations the present paper observes a situation characterized as factor intensity reversal in South Asian countries necessitated by structural transformation within the industry due to increasing use of their scarce factor. The paper argues that implementing such a change in the production process in these countries would not be easy, especially in the post-MFA regime and thus regional cooperation in this sector could be one of the ways of meeting the post-MFA challenges. In this context, the paper explores the prospects for horizontal specialization and industrial restructuring with the help of strengthening trade-investment linkages in this sector in the SAARC region along with adopting some other policy measures.
#84

India's Export by Countries and Commodities: On the Estimation of a Forecasting Model Using Panel Data  by Rajesh Mehta and Parul Mathur
Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to develop a framework for forecasting of India’s annual exports at regular intervals, which would be carried out for principal trading partners and their principal commodities. Individual country/commodity analysis takes into account the country/commodity wise characteristics such as non-tariff barriers, language differences, locational/distance differences, preferential and other trading arrangements etc. Apart from the above mentioned country/commodity specific characteristics it may be due to the demand conditions, differences in the degree of the sensitiveness of prices, which cannot be captured at an aggregate level. The general framework of the econometric model for forecasting of India’s export by selected destinations and its selected commodities at the 6-digit HS classification level is developed in the first half of the paper. The econometric analysis of the framework rests on panel data. The primary factors taken to be influencing India’s exports at a disaggregated level are total imports of the destination country and relative prices reflecting the level of competitiveness of India’s exports in the destination country. The entire model constitutes of around 280 variables for the purpose of forecasting. For illustration purposes, the estimation of econometric sub-model for India’s export to USA is stated. There are 17 cross-sectional commodity codes with the time–series ranging from 1993-2001. The independent variables forecasting is performed using time-series models. The revised forecasts estimate for India’s export to USA stands at 8.85 per cent for 2003-04 with the base year of Mar02-Feb03.

#83 A Strategic Approach to Strengthening International Competitiveness in Knowledge Based Industries: Indian Chemical Industry by Vijay Kumar Kaul
Abstract: Indian chemical industry, traditionally insulated from rest of the world, of late has been exposed to global competition. The paper examines its coping strategies and sectoral innovation system: industry’s evolution, major characteristics, policy and institutional framework, and its competitive edge in the global chemical industry. It prescribes some policy guidelines both for the business enterprises and the policy makers. Enterprises need to develop a strategic intent, choose a right business model to operate, develop technological competence to innovate, and focus on economies of scale, quality and environmental norms. Further, it emphasizes the need for strengthening chemical innovation system, availability of institutional finance for modernization, exports and investment, rationalization of the tariffs on import of strategic inputs, and promoting knowledge and chemical parks
#82 A Strategic Approach to Strengthening International Competitiveness in Knowledge Based Industries: The Case of Indian Automotive Industry   by Neelam Singh
Abstract: This study examines the export performance and prospects of the Indian automotive industry. The technology factor being critical, the in-house, collaborative and sponsored R&D needs greater encouragement. We also recommend an early upgradation of testing facilities, and move towards uniform standards; establishment of auto compo zones/ parks, and window showcasing centers; the industry-government partnership in manpower training; institutional provision of export marketing information, market development funds and branding assistance; and FTAs with more prosperous regions. Fixed investment abroad should be promoted, say through tax credit, with a geographical focus and in a coordinated fashion for vehicle and auto component producers.
#81 A Strategic Approach to Strengthening International Competitiveness in Knowledge Based Industries: Non-electrical Machinery Industry by M. Padma Suresh
Abstract: This study examines some major issues regarding competitiveness in one of the medium-high technology industries namely non-electrical machinery industry. Besides a review of the evolution and structure of the industry, the growth performance of the component industries is examined at the three-digit ASI level. A detailed analysis of exports as well as imports at the four-digit ITC classification is undertaken to examine the impact of liberalisation on specific machinery categories. The study indicates the inward orientation of the industry. Low tariffs and liberal imports including imports of second hand machinery have affected some industries like textile machinery and machine tools. The study considers two specific issues that are important for establishing export competitiveness namely developing technological capability and FDI in the industry. A case study of machine tool industry is incorporated for a better understanding of these issues. The report concludes with suggestions for strengthening competitiveness in the industry.
#80

Strategic Approach to Strengthening the International Competitiveness in Knowledge Based Industries: The Indian Pharmaceutical Industry by Aradhna Aggarwal
Abstract: This paper identifies the factors that determine the export competitiveness of firms in the Indian pharmaceutical industry. The analysis is based on the primary survey data as well as the PROWESS database. Our findings suggest that the competitiveness of firms depends not only on firm specific advantages but also on government fiscal incentives. Among the firm specific factors own R&D efforts emerged as one of the prime factors influencing export competitiveness. Technology imports on the other hand did not play a significant export-enhancing role. Brand promotion and lower costs were other important determinants of the export competitiveness. The study also finds that the determinants of export-competitiveness differ across firms of different size and ownership. High transaction and production costs are found to be major constraints faced by Indian exporters. Based on the quantitative and qualitative analysis, the study draws useful policy implications to strengthen the export competitiveness of the industry.

#79 Complementarities and Potentials of Intra-regional Transfers of Investments, Technology and Skills in Asia by Saikat Sinha Roy
Abstract: This paper examines complementarities in merchandise trade and potentials for intra-regional transfers of investments, technology and skills in Asia. The analysis shows that intra-regional trade was substantial and growing, but trade complementarities were limited. Asian countries have also emerged as sources of as well as destinations for investment, technology and skills. In the event of a formal regional integration arrangement in Asia, there is potential for intra-regional trade, investments, technology transfers and skill movements. Substantial gains in regional welfare are also expected.
#78 Towards Formation of Close Economic Cooperation among Asian Countries by S K Mohanty, Sanjib Pohit, and Saikat Sinha Roy
Abstract: There have been several attempts in the past for the formation of an Asian Economic Community (AEC) with a view to enhance continental welfare within stipulated timeframe. The formation of a Close Economic Relation (CER) among some of the vibrant economies of the region, particularly JACIK Member countries (ASEAN plus three plus one) would be of immense importance in attaining such a goal. Three alternative forms of comprehensive economic liberalisation schemes may be envisaged. In this paper an effort has been made to examine the implication of CER on the region using monopolistic version of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) for the JACIK countries. The model has been used to examine the implications of complete liberalisation of trade, investment and movement of natural persons. The results show that the proposed CER may enhance global welfare as well as welfare for individual countries in the caucus. Following formation of the proposed CER, the absolute increase in regional welfare may go beyond US$ 210 billion per annum amounting to more than 3 per cent of the region’s GNP. The implications of the CER on the regional economy would be favourable in improving production efficiency, expanding exports apart from increasing returns on capital and labour.
#77 Transaction Costs as Barriers to Economic Integration in Asia: An Empirical Exploration by Prabir De
Abstract: Recent literature has emphasized the importance of transaction costs and infrastructure in explaining trade, access to markets, and regional cooperation under globalization. For most Asian countries, transaction cost works as a strong barrier to trade integration than import tariff. By estimating a structural model of economic geography using cross-country data on income, infrastructure, transaction costs and trade of selected Asian economies, this paper provides evidence that transaction cost is statistically significant and important in explaining variation in trade in Asia. In addition, the study also finds that port efficiency and infrastructure quality are two important determinants of transaction costs.
#76
Transforming Digital Divide into Digital Dividend: The Role of South-South Cooperation in ICTs 
by  K.J Joseph
Abstract: This paper argues that the present approach, which aims at proliferating the use of ICTs in developing countries, by neglecting its production, is likely to perpetuate technological dependence of the South. Hence the e-strategies and policies in the South need to integrate both production and use. In this process much could be gained by South-South cooperation because, unlike the earlier general-purpose technologies, in case of ICTs substantial capabilities exist in the South. While there are certain initiatives at the regional and bilateral level to foster cooperation, the paper calls for an e-South Framework Agreement to facilitate a broad based approach to pool the resources such that economies of scale and scope are achieved and risks minimized.
#75 Transport Cooperation in BIMST-EC: Issues and Way Forward
by Prabir De
The growth of regional trading blocs has been one of the major developments in international relations in recent years; all countries are now members of at least one bloc and many belong to more than one. The major contributing factor to rising regional integration across many parts of the world has been improved integrated transport systems which has facilitated nesting of regional and/or sub-regional markets. This paper finds that the scale of intra-regional infrastructure disparity in BIMST-EC is quite significant resulting in wider scope for stronger economic interdependence in the region. The paper concludes that although at present there is limited interdependence among BIMST-EC members in terms of intra-regional trade, a stronger and desirable intra-regional trade is contingent upon improved transport network among BIMST-EC countries. This is not a difficult task as these countries not only belong to the same geographical rim but also they have a strong historical and cultural bond.
#74 WTO Market Access Negotiations and Indian Small Scale Industry
by Rajesh Mehta and Pooja Agarwal

A large section of Indian small-scale industrial sector had been protected from the plundering rivalry of the large-scale industries. The ongoing trade liberalization and globalization talks can put these industries in problem. The main aim of this paper is to assess the implications of present round of World Trade Organisation (WTO) negotiations on Indian products, which are for exclusive manufacture by small-scale sector. 

As a first step the analyses of the Uruguay round Commitments, Doha declaration and member countries’ proposals, with special emphasis on the developing countries taking India as the case study, has been conducted. Further the structure and levels of bindings, base rates from where negotiations would start and tariff incidence for the products reserved for the exclusive manufacture of Indian small-scale industries has been studied. Finally the likely post negotiations scenarios for Indian small-scale industries have been presented.

The study finds some interesting results. At present around 66 per cent